David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterAug 5, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
The MLB trade deadline is over, the dog days are here and the September stretch drive is a few weeks away, so it's a perfect time to look at the wild-card races and how they're shaping up after the deadline. Let's be honest here: There weren't a lot of impact moves made before the July 30 deadline, with the most important ones perhaps being made by teams that strengthened their bullpens.
This is the third season of the three wild-card spots, so it's worth noting what it took to make it in the past two seasons:
2022 American League: 86 wins
2022 National League: 87 wins
2023 American League: 87 wins
2023 National League: 84 wins
It looks like it will take a few more wins than last season -- in part because we might not have any 100-win teams for the first time since 2014 (we've had at least three in each full season since 2017). It might take 91 or 92 wins to make it into the playoffs in the AL (call this the White Sox effect) and maybe 87 in the NL -- although the NL chasers have been trending up as of late, so maybe that number gets bumped up to 89 or 90 wins.
Let's dig right in and rank the wild-card teams in each league, with my predictions on who makes it.
National League
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 60-52
Wild Card standing: 3rd wild-card spot
Deadline additions: LHP A.J. Puk, RHP Dylan Floro, 1B Josh Bell
Why they added these players: The D-backs added bullpen depth to a relief corps that ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA. Bell was a deadline-day acquisition to fill in for Christian Walker, who injured his oblique the night before (he's hoping to miss just three weeks).
What's needed to take the next step: Jordan Montgomery is worth mentioning, although the Diamondbacks have somehow gone 10-5 in his starts despite his 6.51 ERA. He still needs to step up, though -- especially since Corbin Carroll seems to finally be doing that, hitting six home runs in July after entering the month with just two.
Why they rank here: This is starting to look a lot like 2023 -- only Arizona got it going a little earlier this season. After a slow start, the Diamondbacks went 16-11 in June and 17-8 in July. The offense leads the NL in runs scored -- which the Diamondbacks last did in 2002. Walker was a big part of that, but Bell has been hot, homering in three of his final four games with the Miami Marlins and then twice in his Arizona debut. Last season, the bullpen struggled the first four months before figuring things out down the stretch. The hope this year is adding Puk and Floro will deepen a pen that has pitched a lot of innings.
Along with the offense that has been soaring of late, the Diamondbacks may finally be getting their rotation completely together for the first time all season. Eduardo Rodriguez is scheduled to make his first start of 2024 on Tuesday, and Merrill Kelly, who has made just four starts, makes his first rehab start on Tuesday -- and the Diamondbacks indicated if all goes well, that may be the only one he needs. There are no guarantees with pitchers returning from injury, but the Diamondbacks may be peaking for the stretch run -- and maybe they can even chase down the struggling Los Angeles Dodgers for the club's first NL West title since 2011.
2. San Diego Padres
Record: 61-52
Wild Card standing: 2nd (+0.5 games)
Deadline additions: LHP Tanner Scott, RHP Jason Adam, RHP Bryan Hoeing, LHP Martin Perez
Why they added these players: General manager A.J. Preller reinforced a bullpen that ranks 18th in ERA but 28th in win probability added, acquiring maybe the two best relievers to get traded (and paying what many thought was a steep price to get them). But now the Padres can go six or seven deep with confidence in the pen with Robert Suarez, Scott, Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon and Hoeing. They went from a shaky bullpen to one of the best and, given the concerns at the back of the rotation, they'll ride that pen heavily down the stretch.
What's needed to take the next step: With a lot of unknowns regarding the returns of Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, let's point to Xander Bogaerts. He was hitting .219 on May 20 when he went down for nearly two months, but he then hit .453 in 13 games in July after returning. They'll need that offense to continue.
Why they rank here: The two-game sweep of the Dodgers last week was a critical series for the Padres as this could be a three-team race in the NL West. The Padres need to get something from their fourth and fifth starters as Dylan Cease and Michael King have settled into a dynamite 1-2 punch of late and Matt Waldron has been a nice surprise as the third starter. Randy Vasquez has been hit hard overall, although six of his past seven starts have been solid.
Certainly, the Padres would like to get something from Darvish and Musgrove, but it sounds like anything they get from those two will be a bonus. Hence, the need to rely on the bullpen. Tatis hasn't played since June 21, when he suffered a stress reaction in his right leg. He was hitting very well at that point -- .279/.354/.468, not as good as his 2019-2021 peak, but better than last season. The Padres have been faking right field with a David Peralta/Bryce Johnson platoon, so they desperately need Tatis back for that reason as well. They collapsed the final two months of 2021 and had a terrible August last year before ultimately missing the wild card by two games. I think they'll avoid a similar fate this year and at least win a wild-card spot -- and let's see if their final two series of the season against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks (both on the road) will come with the division title still in play.
3. New York Mets
Record: 58-53
Wild Card standing: 4th (-1.5)
Deadline additions: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Paul Blackburn, RHP Huascar Brazoban
Why they added these players: The Mets also acquired reliever Phil Maton earlier in July as they played it pretty conservatively at the deadline, not wishing to empty the farm system of any top prospects while still filling some needs. Winker was hitting well for the Washington Nationals and should help against right-handed pitching while Blackburn will replace the injured-again Kodai Senga in the rotation.
What's needed to take the next step: There's a reason the Mets added relievers as it's been a revolving door in the bullpen all season between injuries and inconsistent performance. They are 21-12 in one-run games, but that's a little misleading as the pen is 20th in the majors in win probability added and only the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays have a worse home run rate among relievers (see Saturday, when Brazoban gave up a game-losing three-run home run in the seventh inning). Mets starters aren't going to rack up a ton of innings, so manager Carlos Mendoza will have to use all these guys.
Why they rank here: After a dismal May dropped New York 11 games under .500 and as many as 17.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the division, the offense turned it on and the Mets now have the best record in baseball since early June -- and even the Phillies are within shouting distance, although a wild card is the most likely chase here. Francisco Lindor has been excellent, there's power up and down the lineup (second in the NL in home runs) and the Mets have positional versatility and depth for Mendoza to play around with.
They'll need to keep scoring runs -- and I think they will. Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea have been fine at the top of the rotation, but it's not a trio that can carry a staff, and Severino struggled in July with a 5.81 ERA. They have a big road trip to San Diego and Arizona at the end of August, and 10 of their final 17 games are against the Phillies and Braves -- seven against Philly, three against Atlanta. It's the Mets, so you never want to believe too much, but I like the way this team is trending. I have them sneaking in as the third and final wild card.
4. Atlanta Braves
Record: 60-51
Wild Card standing: 1st (+0.5)
Deadline additions: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Luke Jackson
Why they added these players: Braves outfielders are next to last in the majors in OPS, so even though Soler hadn't played the field all season with the Giants, the Braves brought back their 2021 World Series MVP and will live with his defense.
What's needed to take the next step: Matt Olson's OPS is down more than 250 points from 2023. He hit .172 in July but did just hit five home runs in a six-game stretch. As bad as the overall offense has been since the beginning of May, the Braves need Olson to go on a two-month bender and save his season.
Why they rank here: It's been a grind most of the season for the Braves as key injuries have piled up -- Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II are all out now, with Acuna out for the season -- and the offense has shown no signs of picking up. After starting 19-7, they're under .500 since then -- and yet even the slumping Phillies remain within reach. Atlanta has seven games left against Philadelphia, the final one on Sept. 1. Anything is possible here: The Braves could win the NL East or they could miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017 (the last time they also didn't win the division).
My prediction: They miss the playoffs. Sunday's shutout loss (and series loss) to the Marlins is another sign the offense isn't going to break out. Max Fried's return from the injured list wasn't encouraging as he walked five batters and got knocked out in the fourth inning. Sometimes it just isn't your season. That may be the case for the Braves in 2024.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
Record: 57-55
Wild Card standing: 5th (-3)
Deadline additions: RHP Erick Fedde, OF Tommy Pham, RHP Shawn Armstrong
Why they added these players: Fedde, who comes with an additional season of team control, was viewed as one of the key pickups at the trade deadline, helping a rotation that had a 5.04 ERA in July. Pham provides a corner bat that can spell Lars Nootbaar or Alec Burleson against lefties.
What's needed to take the next step: Do Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have enough juice left in their bats to get on a hot streak? Goldschmidt's OPS continues to hover around .700, although he did have his best month in July (.260/.280/.470), not that it was anything great. Manager Ollie Marmol had dropped Goldschmidt to seventh in the lineup a few times but bumped him back up to cleanup this past weekend. Arenado's OPS also hangs around .700 and he at least cut way down on his strikeouts in July. Still, there aren't a lot of indications that a hot stretch is coming for either player.
Why they rank here: Given the struggles of Goldschmidt and Arenado, it's pretty remarkable the Cardinals are in this spot to begin with. In one sense, they've overachieved to even get over .500, as they've been outscored by 42 runs. Fedde was a needed addition, although his first start didn't go well (five runs, two home runs). Like the Diamondbacks, Padres and Mets, the Cardinals have also played better after a 15-24 start. The schedule toughens up starting with Monday's makeup game against the Mets, with 28 of the Cardinals' next 31 games against teams currently over .500. Look, they have too much history of winning to bet against them, and this year does feel like one of those seasons that has "St. Louis" written all over it, with the Cardinals slipping into the playoffs with a mediocre team. Still, the offense is just 13th in the NL in runs and I don't think they're as good as the teams above them. Unless Goldschmidt and Arenado can turn back the clock, I think they fall short.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 56-55
Wild Card standing: 6th (-3.5)
Deadline additions: OF Bryan De La Cruz, IF/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2B Nick Yorke, LHP Jalen Beeks
Why they added these players: Pirates outfielders are hitting .228 with a .300 OBP, ranking 26th in the majors in OPS. De La Cruz wasn't much better with the Marlins (.289 OBP), although he at least brings some pop (18 home runs). He's been playing right field since the trade. Kiner-Falefa was having the best offensive season of his career with the Blue Jays and played second base in his Pirates debut.
What's needed to take the next step: Ke'Bryan Hayes has had a miserable offensive season, with a sub-.300 OBP and just three home runs. We've seen him get hot before, but he's had trouble getting the ball in the air all season -- his average launch angle has dropped from 13.2 degrees in 2023 to just 5 degrees, a startling year-to-year decline.
Why they rank here: Give the Pirates credit for actually doing something at the trade deadline -- it's worth noting that De La Cruz comes with three more years of team control and Kiner-Falefa is signed for another season, so they were acquired for an eye to 2025 as much as this season. A big question facing the Pirates: How many innings left for Paul Skenes? He was at 108 between the Pirates and Triple-A entering Sunday's start, after pitching 129 last year between LSU and the minors. If we assume a 30-inning increase to 160, that gives him a chance to finish the season in the rotation. He pitched 30 innings in June and 28 in July (when he had 11 days off surrounding the All-Star break). The Pirates may need every one of those innings to stay in the race -- and if they do make the playoffs, that could lead to a Stephen Strasburg situation, where Skenes is shut down. But the Pirates have to get there first, and that's a longshot.
7. San Francisco Giants
Record: 56-57
Wild Card standing: 7th (-4.5)
Deadline addition: OF Mark Canha (traded away DH Jorge Soler and RHP Alex Cobb)
Why they added him: The Giants traded Soler -- who is owed $16 million each of the next two seasons -- while replacing him with Canha. Cobb hadn't pitched all season. So, essentially, the Giants did nothing, an acknowledgement from the front office that their playoff odds are slim -- although not impossible.
What's needed to take the next step: Robbie Ray has made three starts since coming off the IL. Kyle Harrison has been up-and-down all season -- he just followed three good starts in a row with a four-homer outing. Jordan Hicks has already been moved to the bullpen after tiring following a strong start. The Giants know what they're going to get from Logan Webb and Blake Snell may not lose again, so Ray and Harrison will have to get rolling.
Why they rank here: The Giants have a lot of teams to jump over and they've been hanging around .500 all season, without showing any signs that they're capable of winning 12 of 14 or something like that -- the kind of stretch they'll need to get closer. I'm not completely dismissing those chances, however, because there is a chance the rotation dominates down the stretch. They also begin an easy stretch of games here: Their next 16 are against the Nationals, Detroit Tigers, Braves, Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox. They need to dominate these next three weeks to have a chance, but with playoff odds hovering around 10%, it's unlikely the Giants make it to October.
American League
1. New York Yankees
Record: 67-46
Wild Card standing: 1st wild-card spot (+4 games)
Deadline additions: IF/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., RHP Mark Leiter Jr., RHP Enyel De Los Santos
Why they added these players: The Yankees lead the AL in scoring (by a couple runs over the Orioles), but Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been doing most of the work, so they needed another bat. Chisholm had never played third base before, but he plugs a big hole playing there for New York. Leiter was having an excellent season with the Chicago Cubs and will provide high-leverage bullpen help.
What's needed to take the next step: The rotation was the best in baseball in April and May but had a 5.37 ERA in June and 4.95 in July. Gerrit Cole hasn't been able to find any consistency. He allowed three home runs on July 24 and then had his next start pushed back due to fatigue (he was OK when he did finally pitch on Sunday, allowing two runs in 5⅔ innings). What's he have in the tank?
Why they rank here: March was great (4-0 against the Astros to begin the season). May was great (21-7). June and July were thoroughly mediocre. The Yankees are safely in a wild-card position, although they certainly have their sights set on the AL East title and that wild-card lead has slowly been shrinking. The Orioles lead the season series six to four, so they clinch the tie-breaker with one more win. The final series between these two teams is the final week of the season at Yankee Stadium (oddly, however, the Yankees have been much better on the road).
As much as everyone keeps pointing to needing more support for Judge and Soto -- which is true! -- it's the pitching that has been the bigger issue of late. A lot of low-inning outings has put more pressure on the bullpen, plus closer Clay Holmes, after being scored upon just twice in his first 30 outings, allowed runs in seven of his next 16 with five blown saves in that stretch. I'd pick the Orioles to win the AL East with the Yankees setting for the wild card.
2. Minnesota Twins
Record: 62-48
Wild Card standing: 2nd (+0.5)
Deadline additions: RHP Trevor Richards
Why they added him: No contender did as little at the trade deadline as the Twins, picking up only a back-end bullpen piece in Richards.
What's needed to take the next step: Royce Lewis has stepped up -- when he's been in the lineup, that is. He has been incredible, slugging .686 with 13 home runs, but has played just 33 games. Lewis is back again, and if he can remain healthy the rest of the way -- and if they also get Carlos Correa back -- the Twins should have one of the best lineups in the league down the stretch.
Why they rank here: It's not just about the health of Lewis, Correa and Byron Buxton, but that certainly feels like the key for the Twins. It's also worth pointing out that they're done with the White Sox -- and they're barely over .500 when not playing the White Sox (they went 12-1 against them). Minnesota does have eight games remaining against the Guardians, including four at home this coming weekend, and is 0-5 against Cleveland on the season. Any hope the Twins have of chasing down Cleveland for the AL Central begins with taking at least three of four in that upcoming series. I thought they could have used another starting pitcher, but financial matters ruled the offseason and the lack of trades at the deadline. The Twins are in a good position to win a wild-card spot, but it would have been nice to see more commitment from ownership. It all points to a possible showdown against the Yankees. History doesn't matter, does it?
3. Kansas City Royals
Record: 63-50
Wild Card standing: 3rd
Deadline additions: RHP Lucas Erceg, RHP Michael Lorenzen, IF Paul DeJong (and RHP Hunter Harvey earlier in July)
Why they added these players: The Royals needed bullpen help and added two relievers who can hit 100 mph in Erceg and Harvey. Lorenzen started in his first game for them and allowed one run in 5⅔ innings. Hunter blew a save opportunity on Saturday, however, allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth while James McArthur then lost the game by allowing two runs in the 11th inning. Acquiring bullpen depth is one thing, but they still have to perform.
What's needed to take the next step: Bobby Witt Jr. can't do it all by himself -- well, maybe he can, but it seems like he'll need more offensive support from others besides Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. MJ Melendez has an OBP hovering around .250 yet continues to play. Maikel Garcia has a sub-.300 OBP. At least Hunter Renfroe has hit well the past two months after an awful start, but the Royals need to find more runs.
Why they rank here: After playing so well the first two months, I kept expecting the Royals to fade -- after all, this was a team that lost 106 games last season. But that hasn't happened -- thanks in large part to Witt, who hit an incredible .489 in July, scoring 26 runs in 23 games and driving in 22. He's now going blow-for-blow with Judge in the MVP race.
Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer have been so good that it's now pretty clear the Royals aren't going to fade away and you have to appreciate them adding at the deadline. Like the Twins, they're also done with the White Sox (they also went 12-1 against them), which means the schedule, by default, will be tougher the rest of the way. Indeed, Kansas City has a 23-game stretch starting in late August against the Phillies, Guardians, Astros, Guardians again, Twins, Yankees and Pirates -- all teams with winning records. If those three starters keep pitching at this level and the new guys in the bullpen pitch well, however, the Royals can return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
4. Boston Red Sox
Record: 59-51
Wild Card standing: 4th (-2.5)
Deadline additions: C Danny Jansen, LHP James Paxton, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Lucas Sims, RHP Quinn Priester
Why they added these players: The bullpen was in drastic need of reinforcement after struggling with a 6.22 ERA in July, while Paxton -- who had struggled in his final few starts with the Dodgers -- is more of a dart throw at this point. The Red Sox were aggressive at the deadline, but it was more of a constrained aggressiveness, addressing obvious holes without giving up any top prospects.
What's needed to take the next step: The rotation was dominant early on but has struggled coming out of the All-Star break with a 5.80 ERA in 15 games and 25 home runs allowed in 80⅔ innings. Paxton isn't necessarily a fix here, so Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta will have to figure out how to stop serving up so many gopher balls.
Why they rank here: Not to dismiss the AL West teams, but this feels like three teams for two spots between the Twins, Royals and Red Sox, with the AL East runner-up just about a lock to make it. The Red Sox can score runs, and getting Triston Casas back should only help in that department, so it comes down to the pitching staff regaining some of the momentum it had earlier in the season.
They have seven games against the Orioles and four against the Yankees, plus two series against the Astros -- that will test the pitching. Nine of Boston's final 12 games are against the Rays (6) and Blue Jays (3), however, two teams who might be mailing it in by the end of September. When comparing the Sox to the Royals, I'd take K.C.'s top three starters before I get to the best Boston starter (that would be Houck, who has been scuffling a bit of late), and maybe that's the biggest factor here. I don't know if Garcia and Sims are enough to turn around a scuffling bullpen. We could end up with three AL Central teams in the postseason.
5. Houston Astros
Record: 57-54
Wild Card standing: 6th (-5)
Deadline additions: LHP Yusei Kikuchi, LHP Caleb Ferguson
Why they added these players: With Justin Verlander still on the IL and Spencer Arrighetti sitting on a 5.33 ERA (after a strong outing on Sunday), the Astros were looking for more rotation depth. Most analysts felt they overpaid for Kikuchi, who is just a rental and had a 4.75 ERA for the Blue Jays. He did pitch well in his Astros debut, with 11 K's and two runs in 5⅔ innings.
What's needed to take the next step: The offense actually had its worst month in July -- which tells you just how much the team has missed Kyle Tucker, who hasn't played since June 3 due to a shin injury. It doesn't sound like Tucker is going to return in August, so Houston will need others to step up behind Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve.
Why they rank here: Give the Astros credit for clawing back into the AL West race after falling 10 games back on June 18. Indeed, winning the division remains their most likely path to the playoffs. It was kind of a strange deadline for the Astros, overpaying for a mediocre starter in Kikuchi and not adding a bat at first base or the outfield. They have a couple tough road trips ahead: a nine-game trip that starts Monday to Texas, Boston and Tampa Bay and a seven-game trip to Baltimore and Philadelphia later in the month.
The Astros have one series left against the Seattle Mariners -- who currently sit atop the division -- and need to sweep that to win the season series (and own the tie-breaker). Both the Astros and Mariners look flawed enough that I do expect the final two wild-card spots to come down to the Minnesota/Kansas City/Boston trio, but the Astros usually figure out a way. They'll edge out Seattle for the AL West title -- in what may very well end up being the last gasp for this era that has seen them reach seven straight ALCS.
